How to Drive Holiday Sales When Consumers Are Tightening Their Belts

Here’s the thing about this holiday season—it’s going to be interesting. Nearly half of shoppers are planning to cut back on gifts or spend less due to economic concerns. Meanwhile, 70% say they’ll take action if prices keep rising: buying fewer items, skipping decorations, or going the homemade route. The brands that are preparing strategically right now are the ones that’ll capture the biggest share of holiday spending.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

According to Criteo’s retail media data on 2024 holiday performance, advertising investment surged across verticals in Q4.

• Apparel brands increased ad spend by 49% during the holidays
• Toys & Games went up 51% (and saw 7x sales multiplier on peak days)
• Beauty brands bumped up 37%
• Electronics played it safer at 15% but still saw 7x performance during Black Friday

 

Brands that didn’t prepare adequately missed out on 29% of potential sales during the critical holiday window. That’s not a risk you want to take.

 

Understanding the 2025 Consumer Mindset

This year’s holiday shoppers are approaching purchases differently. According to recent eMarketer consumer research, the factors driving purchase decisions reveal a hierarchy.

• Discounts and promotions (55% of consumers—no surprise there)
• Convenience—fast shipping, easy pickup (43%)
• Product reviews (35%)
• Loyalty perks (32%)
• Easy returns (29%)

The takeaway? It’s not just about being the cheapest. It’s about making the purchase feel smart and effortless.

Strategic Recommendations for Q4 2025

1. Start with Smart Promotions
With 55% of consumers prioritizing discounts, promotional strategy becomes critical. Here are some ways to think through that reality without losing margin:

• Tier your promotions strategically across the season
• Bundle complementary products to maintain average order value
• Create urgency with limited-time offers tied to specific shopping moments
• Leverage loyalty programs to reward repeat customers while attracting new ones
  
  

2. Prepare for the Surge
Holiday shopping patterns are predictable—increases start in late October, spike around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, then stay elevated through December.

• Bump up your daily budgets starting mid-October (15-25% increases based on your vertical)
• Add seasonal keywords to capture holiday-specific searches
• Check your campaigns multiple times daily during peak periods 
• Use daily pace overrides for the big shopping days

3. Make Buying Easy
In an economy where 43% of consumers prioritize convenience, operational excellence becomes a competitive advantage:

• Lead with fast shipping in your ad copy
• Showcase easy returns prominently
• Include product ratings in your shopping campaigns
• Make sure everything works perfectly on mobile

 

Strategic Investment vs. Defensive Retreat

While consumer caution is real, the data is clear: brands that invest strategically in Q4 capture disproportionate market share. The key is shifting from defensive cost-cutting to strategic value creation.

Here’s what other marketers are doing with their budgets according to eMarketer research: 63% are increasing search ad spend, and 71% are boosting retail media advertising. But here’s an important note—most of this isn’t coming from finding new money lying around. It’s coming from shifting existing budgets that aren’t performing.

The most successful Q4 campaigns in 2025 will be those that recognize economic realities while still investing in growth. They will lead with value, optimize for convenience and trust, and leverage data-driven insights to maximize efficiency during peak moments.

At Hagan, we’ve seen this playbook work across many verticals. The question isn’t whether to invest in Q4—it’s how to invest smartly. Want help with your Q4 plan? Let’s discuss how to turn economic challenges into competitive advantages.